Dollar on track for weekly gain after Trump election win

THE dollar rose on Friday (Nov 8) and was heading for a weekly gain as investors evaluated the likely impact on the American economy of Tuesday’s election of Republican Donald Trump as US president.

Analysts expect Trump’s policy proposals – including more trade tariffs, a clampdown on illegal immigration, lower taxes and business deregulation – will boost growth and inflation.

But in the near term there remains considerable uncertainty over what policies will actually be introduced.

“We don’t really know how much was campaign rhetoric, how much is a negotiating position, how much of it is speaking principle,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. 

“Part of the volatility we’re seeing in the dollar and in interest rates is that the market is trying to figure it out.”

Republicans also won control of the Senate and are leading the race for the House of Representatives, with some races still to be called.

The dollar index jumped to a four-month high of 105.44 on Wednesday, but has dipped since, partly due to profit-taking. It was up 0.6 per cent on the day at 105.01 on Friday and on pace for a 0.7 per cent weekly increase.

Data on Friday showed that US consumer sentiment rose to a seven-month high in early November, in a survey taken before the election.

The next major US economic release will be Wednesday’s consumer price data for October.

“We need more clarity about US policies,” said Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of forex strategy at Bank of America. “Until then, the greenback will be trading (on) data and expectations for the Fed easing path.”

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, which had been widely expected. Chair Jerome Powell said the US central bank would not speculate on the impact of any policies by the incoming US government.

Traders are pricing in 65 per cent odds that the Fed will cut again by 25 basis points in December, down from 83 per cent a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

The euro dropped 0.85 per cent to US$1.0712 and was headed for a 1.1 per cent decline for the week, which saw the collapse of Germany’s coalition government on Wednesday.

Against the Japanese currency, the greenback fell 0.1 per cent to 152.73 yen.

The yen is expected to suffer as the interest rate differential with the United States widens, which could prompt Japan’s central bank to raise rates as soon as December to prevent the currency from sliding back toward three-decade lows.

China’s yuan weakened after Beijing unveiled a 10 trillion yuan (S$1.85 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilise flagging economic growth.

“Markets may have been hoping for a larger-than-expected stimulus, ” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

The offshore yuan was last down 0.7 per cent at 7.2 per dollar.

The Australian dollar, often used as a liquid proxy for its Chinese counterpart, fell 1.5 per cent to US$0.6576.

Bitcoin was last up 1.5 per cent at US$77,068, after earlier reaching a record US$77,303.97.

Trump is expected to enact a more favourable regulatory environment for the crypto industry. REUTERS